Stock A
Stock B
Stock C
Boom
10%
26%
12%
11%
Normal
70%
14%
9%
8%
Recession
20%
-40%
5%
2%
0.0046656
0.00012250
0.0064512
0.00001750
0.0394272
0.00024500
VARIANCE
0.0505440
0.00038500
ST DEV
SQUARE ROOT
22.48
1.96
2.7
2
Return if
State Occurs
State of
Economy
Probability
of State of
Economy
Return if
State
Occurs