Ceteris
Paribus
Laws
and
socio-economic
machines*
1.
Why
economics
is not allowed
ceteris
paribus
laws
Economics
differs from
physics,
we
are
told,
in that the laws eco
nomics
studies hold
only
ceteris
paribus
whereas
those of
physics
are
supposed
to obtain
universally
and without condition.1 Does
this
point
to
a
metaphysical
difference between
the laws the two
disciplines
study
or
does
it reflect
merely
a
deficiency
in the level of
accomplishment
of
economics
as
compared
to
physics?
The
conventional
regularity
account
of laws tells us it must be the
latter. On
this account
a theoretical
law is a statement of some kind of
regular
association,2
usually
supposed
to hold
"by necessity."
The
idea of
necessity
is
notoriously
problematic.
Within the kind of
empiricist
philos
ophy
that motivates
the
regularity
account
it is difficult to
explain
what
constitutes
the difference between
law-like
regularities
and those that hold
only by
accident,
"nonsense"
correlations
that cannot be relied on. I shall
not be concerned with
necessity
here;
I want
to focus on the associations
themselves. These
can be either
universal,
inwhich
case
the law is deter
ministic,
or
they may
be
merely
probabilistic.
The
regularity
account
is
grounded
in a version of
empiricism
that traces back
to the
philosophy
of
David
Hume.
Empiricism
puts
severe restrictions on the kinds of
proper
ties that
appear
in Nature's
laws,
or at least on the kinds of
properties
that
can be referred to in the law-statements we write down
in our theories.
These
must be observable
or measurable?
It also
restricts the kinds of
facts we can learn: the
only
claims about these
quantities
that are admis
sible
into the domain
of
science
are
facts about
patterns
of
their
co-occurence.
Hence
the
specification
of either an
equation
(in
the case of
determinism)
or of a
probability
distribution
over a set of measurable
quantities
becomes
the
paradigm
for a Law
of Nature.
"Ceteris Paribus Laws and Socio-Economic Machines"
by Nancy Cartwright,
The Monist,
vol.
78,
no.
3, pp.
276-294.
Copyright?
1995,
THE MONIST,
La
Salle,
Illinois 61301.
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